WNBA
Saturday, August 29 at 10:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TOR
Toronto Tempo
Away
11-27 (4-14 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
92.0
—
93.8
Projected Total: 185.8 (O/U: 185.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
TOR: +105
|
PHO: -125
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home
13-25 (5-13 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Toronto Tempo Win Prob
44.6%
No Value Edge
Phoenix Mercury Win Prob
55.4%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Phoenix Mercury to win outright in 55.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TOR -1.8 / PHO +1.8
TOR covers
(-110)
41.6%
PHO covers
(-110)
+6.0% Edge
58.4%
Total
O/U: 185.8
OVER
(-110)
46.9%
UNDER
(-110)
+0.7% Edge
53.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 81.4 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: PHO holds an Offensive Rating of 112.3 vs TOR's Defensive Rating of 115.2.
- • 📊 Season Records: PHO is 13-25 (Home: 5-13) vs TOR 11-27 (Away: 4-14).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: PHO factor: 0.979 | TOR factor: 0.979 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Phoenix Mercury winning outright in 55.4% of trials. Projected score: TOR 92 - PHO 94.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 112.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 113.4
DRtg: 112.9
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 110.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.5% / 44.0%
3-Point %
34.0% / 33.6%
Free Throw %
79.0% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Toronto Tempo
Phoenix Mercury
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Toronto Tempo
L
@ Seattle Storm
78 - 90
|
Aug 26, 2026
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
78 - 88
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
82 - 79
|
Aug 21, 2026
L
vs Indiana Fever
95 - 101
|
Aug 18, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
88 - 94
|
Aug 12, 2026
Phoenix Mercury
L
vs Washington Mystics
84 - 94
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
89 - 99
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs Portland Fire
85 - 88
|
Aug 16, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
94 - 87
|
Aug 11, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
75 - 95
|
Aug 09, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Phoenix Mercury defeated Toronto Tempo
89 - 80
|
Jun 27, 2026
Away
Toronto Tempo defeated Phoenix Mercury
98 - 90
|
May 19, 2026