Boston Red Sox
Away
73-60 (39-28 Away)
New York Yankees
Home
75-57 (34-29 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Boston Red Sox to win outright in 62.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Hosted at NYY's stadium, which features high run and home-run factors favoring overall offensive projections.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Boston Red Sox winning outright in 62.8% of run trials, with a projected score of BOS 4.0 - NYY 2.7. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with NYY +1.5 covering in 52.9% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 6.5 which hit in 52.4% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **67.8%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Jake Bennett (K%: 19.0%, BB%: 6.0%) faces NYY's top of the order (avg OBP: 32.5%). Home starter TBD (K%: 22.0%, BB%: 9.0%) matchups against BOS's first three hitters (avg OBP: 30.8%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.