MLS
Sunday, August 30 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DAL
FC Dallas
Away
9-6-6 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
W
L
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
xG
—
1.9
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.28 (O/U: 2.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
DAL: +255
|
STL: -110
STL
St. Louis CITY SC
Home
9-6-6 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
FC Dallas Win
26.7%
Draw / Tie
24.8%
St. Louis CITY SC Win
48.5%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of FC Dallas Win: 26.7%, Draw: 24.8%, and St. Louis CITY SC Win: 48.5%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.6%
#2
2-1
9.4%
#3
1-2
7.1%
#4
2-0
6.8%
#5
2-2
6.3%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
35.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: DAL +0.5 / STL -0.5
DAL covers
(-115)
51.5%
STL covers
(-110)
48.5%
Total
O/U: 2.8
OVER
(-135)
+6.3% Edge
63.7%
UNDER
(+100)
36.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: STL projected match xG: 1.91 | DAL projected match xG: 1.38 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: STL Win: 48.5% | Draw: 24.8% | DAL Win: 26.7%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.6%), 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%), 2-0 (6.8%), 2-2 (6.3%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: STL record: 9-6-6 (Home: ) vs DAL record: 9-6-6 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: STL factor: 1.041 | DAL factor: 1.001 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **STL Moneyline** (48.5% simulated win probability vs 24.8% draw). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.8 Goals** (63.7% cover probability, projected total: 3.28). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
FC Dallas
L
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
0 - 5
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Real Salt Lake
4 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
@ Austin FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 16, 2026
L
@ LA Galaxy
0 - 0
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ San Diego FC
0 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
St. Louis CITY SC
W
vs Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Sporting Kansas City
1 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
@ San Jose Earthquakes
3 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Real Salt Lake
1 - 1
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Colorado Rapids
1 - 0
|
Jul 25, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
St. Louis CITY SC defeated FC Dallas
1 - 1
|
Apr 11, 2026