WNBA
Sunday, August 30 at 03:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away
31-8 (17-2 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
92.0
—
83.0
Projected Total: 175.0 (O/U: 175.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIN: -295
|
ATL: +240
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
25-13 (12-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Minnesota Lynx Win Prob
73.9%
No Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
26.2%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 73.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIN +9.5 / ATL -9.5
MIN covers
(-110)
+38.1% Edge
90.5%
ATL covers
(-110)
9.5%
Total
O/U: 175.5
OVER
(-110)
31.8%
UNDER
(-110)
+15.8% Edge
68.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.4 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 122.3 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 100.3.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: MIN ratings adjusted (OffRating: -3.8, DefRating: +1.2) with Courtney Williams ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 25-13 (Home: 12-6) vs MIN 31-8 (Away: 17-2).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.006 | MIN factor: 1.036 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 73.9% of trials. Projected score: MIN 92 - ATL 83.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 125.1
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 124.3
DRtg: 104.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 106.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.8% / 40.9%
3-Point %
38.0% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Minnesota Lynx
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Minnesota Lynx
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
66 - 80
|
Aug 24, 2026
W
@ Washington Mystics
94 - 84
|
Aug 21, 2026
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
92 - 87
|
Aug 15, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
85 - 81
|
Aug 12, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
103 - 90
|
Aug 09, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
78 - 71
|
Aug 24, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
99 - 89
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
124 - 88
|
Aug 20, 2026
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
97 - 82
|
Aug 18, 2026
L
vs Indiana Fever
91 - 95
|
Aug 16, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated Atlanta Dream
96 - 81
|
May 27, 2026