MLS
Friday, September 04 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NSH
Nashville SC
Away
16-5-2
Form
D
W
W
W
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.62
—
1.57
Expected Goals
NYC
New York City FC
Home
7-8-8
Form
D
L
L
D
D
- Spread
-
NSH -0.5 (+115)NYC +0.5 (-145)
- Total
-
Posted 2.5 (-130)Simulated 3.2
- Moneyline
-
NSH +120NYC +210
Simulated Outcome Probability
Nashville SC Win
38.9%
Draw / Tie
25.4%
New York City FC Win
35.7%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Nashville SC Win: 38.9%, Draw: 25.4%, and New York City FC Win: 35.7%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.0%
#2
1-2
8.7%
#3
2-1
8.0%
#4
2-2
6.6%
#5
0-1
6.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
35.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NSH -0.5 / NYC +0.5
NSH covers
(+115)
38.8%
NYC covers
(-145)
+2.0% Edge
61.2%
Total
O/U: 2.5
OVER
(-130)
+4.6% Edge
61.1%
UNDER
(+100)
38.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: NYC projected match xG: 1.57 | NSH projected match xG: 1.62 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: NYC Win: 35.7% | Draw: 25.4% | NSH Win: 38.9%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.0%), 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (6.6%), 0-1 (6.2%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: NYC record: 7-7-8 (Home: ) vs NSH record: 16-4-2 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NYC factor: 0.961 | NSH factor: 1.061 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **NSH Moneyline** (38.9% simulated win probability). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NYC +0.5** (61.2% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (61.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.19). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Nashville SC
W
vs FC Cincinnati
4 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs Columbus Crew
3 - 2
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Red Bull New York
1 - 0
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Inter Miami CF
4 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ D.C. United
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
New York City FC
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
@ New England Revolution
1 - 1
|
Aug 23, 2026
L
@ FC Cincinnati
1 - 2
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Union
2 - 3
|
Aug 16, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
1 - 1
|
Jul 31, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Nashville SC defeated New York City FC
2 - 1
|
May 23, 2026