MLS
Saturday, September 05 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
HOU
Houston Dynamo FC
Away
12-4-7
Form
W
W
W
L
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.41
—
1.71
Expected Goals
CLT
Charlotte FC
Home
10-6-7
Form
L
W
D
W
W
- Spread
-
HOU -0.3 (-110)CLT +0.3 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.1 (-110)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
HOU +230CLT +110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Houston Dynamo FC Win
31.1%
Draw / Tie
25.1%
Charlotte FC Win
43.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Houston Dynamo FC Win: 31.1%, Draw: 25.1%, and Charlotte FC Win: 43.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.8%
#2
2-1
9.2%
#3
1-2
7.5%
#4
2-0
6.6%
#5
1-0
6.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
63.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
37.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: HOU -0.3 / CLT +0.3
HOU covers
(-110)
31.1%
CLT covers
(-110)
+16.5% Edge
68.9%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
37.9%
UNDER
(-110)
+9.7% Edge
62.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLT projected match xG: 1.7 | HOU projected match xG: 1.41 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLT Win: 43.8% | Draw: 25.1% | HOU Win: 31.1%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 63.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.8%), 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%), 2-0 (6.6%), 1-0 (6.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLT record: 10-5-7 (Home: ) vs HOU record: 12-3-7 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLT factor: 1.031 | HOU factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLT Moneyline** (43.8% simulated win probability vs 25.1% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLT +0.3** (68.9% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (62.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.12). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (63.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Houston Dynamo FC
L
vs San Jose Earthquakes
0 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
@ St. Louis CITY SC
1 - 2
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
1 - 0
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs LA Galaxy
1 - 0
|
Aug 15, 2026
W
@ New England Revolution
2 - 0
|
Aug 08, 2026
Charlotte FC
W
@ Atlanta United FC
2 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs D.C. United
3 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
3 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Columbus Crew
3 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Chicago Fire FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026