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MLS Saturday, September 05 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
COL

Colorado Rapids

Away 10-1-12
W W W L W
Projected Expected Goals
1.43 — 1.59
Expected Goals
CLB

Columbus Crew

Home 6-5-12
D L L L L
Spread
COL -0.2 (-110)
CLB +0.2 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.5 (-110)
Simulated 3.0
Moneyline
COL +175
CLB +145

Simulated Outcome Probability

Colorado Rapids Win
33.5%
Draw / Tie
26.2%
Columbus Crew Win
40.3%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Colorado Rapids Win: 33.5%, Draw: 26.2%, and Columbus Crew Win: 40.3%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.4%
#2
2-1
8.9%
#3
1-2
7.9%
#4
1-0
6.5%
#5
0-0
6.3%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
61.8%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
38.2%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: COL -0.2 / CLB +0.2
COL covers (-110) 33.5%
CLB covers (-110) +14.1% Edge 66.5%
Total O/U: 3.5
OVER (-110) 35.5%
UNDER (-110) +12.1% Edge 64.5%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 1.57 | COL projected match xG: 1.43 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 40.3% | Draw: 26.2% | COL Win: 33.5%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.8% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%), 1-0 (6.5%), 0-0 (6.3%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 5-5-12 (Home: ) vs COL record: 10-1-11 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLB factor: 0.941 | COL factor: 1.051 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (40.3% simulated win probability vs 26.2% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLB +0.1** (66.5% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (64.5% cover probability, projected total: 3.02). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.8% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Colorado Rapids

W vs Real Salt Lake
1 - 0 | Aug 29, 2026
L @ San Diego FC
0 - 3 | Aug 22, 2026
W vs LAFC
1 - 0 | Aug 19, 2026
W vs Sporting Kansas City
2 - 0 | Aug 15, 2026
W vs Austin FC
1 - 0 | Aug 01, 2026

Columbus Crew

L vs New England Revolution
1 - 3 | Aug 30, 2026
L @ Nashville SC
2 - 3 | Aug 22, 2026
L vs CF Montréal
1 - 2 | Aug 19, 2026
L @ Charlotte FC
1 - 3 | Aug 15, 2026
L @ Inter Miami CF
2 - 2 | Aug 01, 2026