MLS
Wednesday, September 09 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ORL
Orlando City SC
Away
9-4-11
Form
D
L
W
D
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.59
—
1.88
Expected Goals
ATL
Atlanta United FC
Home
6-4-14
Form
W
W
W
L
D
- Spread
-
ORL +0.5 (-135)ATL -0.5 (+110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (+100)Simulated 3.5
- Moneyline
-
ORL +195ATL +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
Orlando City SC Win
31.5%
Draw / Tie
25.2%
Atlanta United FC Win
43.3%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Orlando City SC Win: 31.5%, Draw: 25.2%, and Atlanta United FC Win: 43.3%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.1%
#2
2-1
8.8%
#3
2-2
7.4%
#4
1-2
6.9%
#5
3-1
5.6%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
31.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ORL +0.5 / ATL -0.5
ORL covers
(-135)
56.7%
ATL covers
(+110)
43.3%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(+100)
45.8%
UNDER
(-130)
54.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: ATL projected match xG: 1.89 | ORL projected match xG: 1.6 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: ATL Win: 43.3% | Draw: 25.2% | ORL Win: 31.5%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.4%), 1-2 (6.9%), 3-1 (5.6%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: ATL record: 6-4-13 (Home: ) vs ORL record: 8-4-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.031 | ORL factor: 1.011 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **ATL Moneyline** (43.3% simulated win probability vs 25.2% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **ORL +0.5** (56.7% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (54.2% cover probability, projected total: 3.47). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Orlando City SC
W
vs San Diego FC
1 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
@ Minnesota United FC
3 - 3
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs Real Salt Lake
2 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
vs FC Cincinnati
1 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
Atlanta United FC
L
@ Inter Miami CF
2 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
0 - 2
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs Sporting Kansas City
2 - 1
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
@ Minnesota United FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Red Bull New York
2 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta United FC defeated Orlando City SC
1 - 1
|
May 16, 2026