MLS
Wednesday, September 09 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLT
Charlotte FC
Away
11-6-7
Form
W
D
W
W
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.59
—
1.67
Expected Goals
MTL
CF Montréal
Home
5-6-13
Form
D
W
D
L
L
- Spread
-
CLT -0.1 (-110)MTL +0.1 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.3 (-110)Simulated 3.3
- Moneyline
-
CLT +150MTL +160
Simulated Outcome Probability
Charlotte FC Win
35.2%
Draw / Tie
26.0%
CF Montréal Win
38.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Charlotte FC Win: 35.2%, Draw: 26.0%, and CF Montréal Win: 38.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.4%
#2
2-1
8.1%
#3
1-2
7.7%
#4
2-2
7.0%
#5
2-0
5.5%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.6%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
34.4%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLT -0.1 / MTL +0.1
CLT covers
(-110)
35.2%
MTL covers
(-110)
+12.4% Edge
64.8%
Total
O/U: 3.3
OVER
(-110)
41.5%
UNDER
(-110)
+6.1% Edge
58.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MTL projected match xG: 1.66 | CLT projected match xG: 1.58 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MTL Win: 38.8% | Draw: 26.0% | CLT Win: 35.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.6% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.4%), 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.0%), 2-0 (5.5%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MTL record: 5-6-12 (Home: ) vs CLT record: 10-6-7 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MTL factor: 0.981 | CLT factor: 1.041 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **MTL Moneyline** (38.8% simulated win probability vs 26.0% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **MTL +0.1** (64.8% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.2 Goals** (58.5% cover probability, projected total: 3.26). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.6% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Charlotte FC
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
0 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
W
@ Atlanta United FC
2 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs D.C. United
3 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
3 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Columbus Crew
3 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
CF Montréal
L
@ Philadelphia Union
0 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
1 - 7
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs LA Galaxy
2 - 2
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Columbus Crew
2 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
vs D.C. United
1 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026