MLS
Saturday, September 12 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
RBNY
Red Bull New York
Away
8-6-11
Form
L
D
L
D
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.33
—
1.75
Expected Goals
CLB
Columbus Crew
Home
6-5-14
Form
L
L
L
W
L
- Spread
-
RBNY -0.4 (-110)CLB +0.4 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.1 (-110)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
RBNY +245CLB +100
Simulated Outcome Probability
Red Bull New York Win
27.9%
Draw / Tie
26.1%
Columbus Crew Win
46.0%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Red Bull New York Win: 27.9%, Draw: 26.1%, and Columbus Crew Win: 46.0%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.6%
#2
2-1
9.3%
#3
1-2
7.3%
#4
1-0
7.1%
#5
2-0
6.9%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
62.3%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
37.7%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: RBNY -0.4 / CLB +0.4
RBNY covers
(-110)
27.9%
CLB covers
(-110)
+19.7% Edge
72.1%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
37.5%
UNDER
(-110)
+10.1% Edge
62.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 1.73 | RBNY projected match xG: 1.33 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 46.0% | Draw: 26.1% | RBNY Win: 27.9%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.3% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.6%), 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%), 1-0 (7.1%), 2-0 (6.9%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 6-5-13 (Home: ) vs RBNY record: 7-6-11 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLB factor: 0.961 | RBNY factor: 0.951 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (46.0% simulated win probability vs 26.1% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLB +0.4** (72.1% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (62.5% cover probability, projected total: 3.08). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.3% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Red Bull New York
L
@ LAFC
0 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Seattle Sounders FC
0 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Union
1 - 3
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs Nashville SC
0 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
Columbus Crew
L
@ D.C. United
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
W
vs Colorado Rapids
3 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
1 - 3
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
@ Nashville SC
2 - 3
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs CF Montréal
1 - 2
|
Aug 19, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Red Bull New York defeated Columbus Crew
3 - 2
|
May 13, 2026