MLS
Saturday, September 12 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta United FC
Away
6-5-14
Form
W
W
L
D
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.47
—
1.83
Expected Goals
DC
D.C. United
Home
6-11-7
Form
D
L
L
D
W
- Spread
-
ATL +0.5 (-145)DC -0.5 (+115)
- Total
-
Posted 2.9 (-120)Simulated 3.3
- Moneyline
-
ATL +200DC +120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta United FC Win
30.7%
Draw / Tie
24.2%
D.C. United Win
45.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Atlanta United FC Win: 30.7%, Draw: 24.2%, and D.C. United Win: 45.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.4%
#2
2-1
8.8%
#3
1-2
7.6%
#4
2-2
6.7%
#5
1-0
6.0%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.5%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
34.5%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL +0.5 / DC -0.5
ATL covers
(-145)
54.9%
DC covers
(+115)
45.1%
Total
O/U: 2.9
OVER
(-120)
+9.8% Edge
64.3%
UNDER
(-105)
35.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: DC projected match xG: 1.83 | ATL projected match xG: 1.48 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: DC Win: 45.1% | Draw: 24.2% | ATL Win: 30.7%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.5% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%), 2-2 (6.7%), 1-0 (6.0%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: DC record: 6-10-7 (Home: ) vs ATL record: 6-4-14 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: DC factor: 0.981 | ATL factor: 1.001 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **DC Moneyline** (45.1% simulated win probability vs 24.2% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **ATL +0.5** (54.9% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.9 Goals** (64.3% cover probability, projected total: 3.3). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.5% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta United FC
L
vs Orlando City SC
2 - 3
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
2 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
0 - 2
|
Aug 29, 2026
W
vs Sporting Kansas City
2 - 1
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
@ Minnesota United FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
D.C. United
W
vs Columbus Crew
2 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
vs LAFC
0 - 0
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
@ Charlotte FC
1 - 3
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
0 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
@ CF Montréal
1 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
D.C. United defeated Atlanta United FC
0 - 0
|
Mar 21, 2026