MLS
Sunday, September 13 at 05:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NE
New England Revolution
Away
13-4-8
Form
W
D
W
L
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.46
—
1.81
Expected Goals
CHI
Chicago Fire FC
Home
11-6-7
Form
W
D
D
D
D
- Spread
-
NE -0.4 (-110)CHI +0.4 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.3 (-110)Simulated 3.3
- Moneyline
-
NE +205CHI +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
New England Revolution Win
30.4%
Draw / Tie
24.9%
Chicago Fire FC Win
44.7%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of New England Revolution Win: 30.4%, Draw: 24.9%, and Chicago Fire FC Win: 44.7%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.7%
#2
2-1
9.0%
#3
1-2
7.4%
#4
2-2
7.0%
#5
2-0
6.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
35.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NE -0.4 / CHI +0.4
NE covers
(-110)
30.4%
CHI covers
(-110)
+17.2% Edge
69.6%
Total
O/U: 3.3
OVER
(-110)
41.4%
UNDER
(-110)
+6.2% Edge
58.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CHI projected match xG: 1.83 | NE projected match xG: 1.48 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CHI Win: 44.7% | Draw: 24.9% | NE Win: 30.4%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.0%), 2-0 (6.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CHI record: 11-6-6 (Home: ) vs NE record: 12-4-8 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CHI factor: 1.001 | NE factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CHI Moneyline** (44.7% simulated win probability vs 24.9% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CHI +0.4** (69.6% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.3 Goals** (58.6% cover probability, projected total: 3.27). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New England Revolution
W
@ New York City FC
2 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ LA Galaxy
1 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
W
@ Columbus Crew
3 - 1
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
vs New York City FC
1 - 1
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
@ D.C. United
3 - 0
|
Aug 19, 2026
Chicago Fire FC
L
vs Inter Miami CF
1 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
4 - 4
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
@ Seattle Sounders FC
2 - 2
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
@ Red Bull New York
1 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Orlando City SC
2 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026