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MLS Sunday, September 13 at 06:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATX

Austin FC

Away 7-8-10
W D W D D
Projected Expected Goals
1.31 — 1.92
Expected Goals
VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps

Home 14-4-6
L W W L W
Spread
ATX -0.6 (-110)
VAN +0.6 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.2 (-110)
Simulated 3.2
Moneyline
ATX +260
VAN -105

Simulated Outcome Probability

Austin FC Win
24.8%
Draw / Tie
24.3%
Vancouver Whitecaps Win
50.9%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Austin FC Win: 24.8%, Draw: 24.3%, and Vancouver Whitecaps Win: 50.9%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.4%
#2
2-1
10.0%
#3
2-0
7.4%
#4
1-0
6.5%
#5
1-2
6.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
63.6%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
36.4%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: ATX -0.6 / VAN +0.6
ATX covers (-110) 24.8%
VAN covers (-110) +22.8% Edge 75.2%
Total O/U: 3.2
OVER (-110) 40.2%
UNDER (-110) +7.4% Edge 59.8%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: VAN projected match xG: 1.92 | ATX projected match xG: 1.31 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: VAN Win: 50.9% | Draw: 24.3% | ATX Win: 24.8%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 63.6% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.4%), 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (7.4%), 1-0 (6.5%), 1-2 (6.2%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: VAN record: 14-4-5 (Home: ) vs ATX record: 6-8-10 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: VAN factor: 1.021 | ATX factor: 1.021 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **VAN Moneyline** (50.9% simulated win probability vs 24.3% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **VAN +0.6** (75.2% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.3 Goals** (59.8% cover probability, projected total: 3.23). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (63.6% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Austin FC

L vs Colorado Rapids
1 - 1 | Sep 09, 2026
L vs San Jose Earthquakes
1 - 1 | Sep 05, 2026
W @ Portland Timbers
2 - 1 | Aug 29, 2026
L vs Philadelphia Union
1 - 1 | Aug 22, 2026
W @ Seattle Sounders FC
2 - 1 | Aug 19, 2026

Vancouver Whitecaps

W vs LA Galaxy
3 - 0 | Sep 09, 2026
L vs St. Louis CITY SC
1 - 3 | Sep 05, 2026
W @ Sporting Kansas City
3 - 0 | Aug 29, 2026
W vs FC Dallas
5 - 0 | Aug 22, 2026
L vs Houston Dynamo FC
0 - 1 | Aug 19, 2026