Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays
- Spread
-
ATH +1.5 (-115)TB -1.5 (-105)
- Total
-
Posted 8.0 (-115)Simulated 10.1
- Moneyline
-
ATH +195TB -235
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Tampa Bay Rays to win outright in 76.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at TB's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Tampa Bay Rays winning outright in 76.9% of run trials, with a projected score of ATH 3.5 - TB 6.5. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with TB -1.5 covering in 62.0% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the OVER 8.0 which hit in 65.0% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **44.5%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Jack Perkins (K%: 25.2%, BB%: 12.1%) faces TB's top of the order (avg OBP: 36.4%). Home starter Griffin Jax (K%: 24.9%, BB%: 8.5%) matchups against ATH's first three hitters (avg OBP: 33.6%). **Best Bet**: **YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning)**. The top-of-the-order hitting splits combined with starters' walk/homer susceptibility suggests high probability of early runs (+11.1% edge on YRFI).