WNBA
Thursday, September 17 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
10-30
(3-17 Away)
Form
L
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
80.5
—
87.3
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
26-14
(13-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
W
- Spread
-
CON +14.6 (-110)ATL -14.6 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 169.5 (-110)Simulated 167.8
- Moneyline
-
CON +775ATL -1335
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun
31.0%
Atlanta Dream
69.0%
+19.6% edge at +775
No edge at -1335
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 69.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON +14.6 / ATL -14.6
CON covers
(-110)
+19.0% Edge
71.4%
ATL covers
(-110)
28.6%
Total
O/U: 169.5
OVER
(-110)
44.2%
UNDER
(-110)
+3.4% Edge
55.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 123.7 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 112.6.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 26-14 (Home: 13-7) vs CON 10-30 (Away: 3-17).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.036 | CON factor: 0.964 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 69.0% of trials. Projected score: CON 81 - ATL 87.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 111.7
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 121.3
DRtg: 108.7
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 106.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 40.9%
3-Point %
32.7% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
L
@ Dallas Wings
71 - 97
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
91 - 111
|
Aug 28, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
64 - 89
|
Aug 26, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
87 - 81
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
@ Los Angeles Sparks
68 - 77
|
Aug 22, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
89 - 81
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
vs Portland Fire
83 - 101
|
Aug 28, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
78 - 71
|
Aug 24, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
99 - 89
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
124 - 88
|
Aug 20, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated Connecticut Sun
104 - 69
|
Aug 13, 2026
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated Connecticut Sun
91 - 75
|
Jun 02, 2026