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WNBA Friday, September 18 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY

New York Liberty

Away 24-16 (10-10 Away)
W L W L W
Projected Final Score
87.4 — 93.2
MIN

Minnesota Lynx

Home 31-9 (14-6 Home)
W W W L L
Spread
NY +6.8 (-110)
MIN -6.8 (-110)
Total
Posted 176.6 (-110)
Simulated 180.6
Moneyline
NY +210
MIN -260

Simulated Outcome Probability

New York Liberty
33.8%
Minnesota Lynx
66.2%
+1.5% edge at +210
No edge at -260

Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 66.2% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: NY +6.8 / MIN -6.8
NY covers (-110) 51.7%
MIN covers (-110) 48.4%
Total O/U: 176.6
OVER (-110) +8.8% Edge 61.2%
UNDER (-110) 38.8%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: MIN holds an Offensive Rating of 125.6 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 104.8.
  • • 📊 Season Records: MIN is 31-9 (Home: 14-6) vs NY 24-16 (Away: 10-10).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 1.007 | NY factor: 1.007 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 66.2% of trials. Projected score: NY 87 - MIN 93.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.8 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.0
ORtg: 114.6 Offensive Rating ORtg: 127.0
DRtg: 105.5 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 103.5

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
46.2% / 44.8%
3-Point %
34.9% / 38.0%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 78.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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New York Liberty

Minnesota Lynx

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

New York Liberty

W vs Chicago Sky
85 - 66 | Aug 29, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
60 - 79 | Aug 27, 2026
W vs Indiana Fever
109 - 102 | Aug 22, 2026
L @ Chicago Sky
86 - 93 | Aug 18, 2026
W @ Connecticut Sun
82 - 75 | Aug 15, 2026

Minnesota Lynx

L @ Atlanta Dream
81 - 89 | Aug 30, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
66 - 80 | Aug 24, 2026
W @ Washington Mystics
94 - 84 | Aug 21, 2026
W @ Las Vegas Aces
92 - 87 | Aug 15, 2026
W @ Portland Fire
85 - 81 | Aug 12, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Minnesota Lynx defeated New York Liberty
90 - 85 | Jul 11, 2026
Home New York Liberty defeated Minnesota Lynx
99 - 86 | Jul 03, 2026

Injury Reports

New York Liberty 1 reported

F Satou Sabally
Out

Minnesota Lynx 3 reported

G Elena Buenavida
Out
F Antonia Delaere
Out
F Dorka Juhasz
Out