WNBA
Saturday, September 19 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away
14-26
(8-12 Away)
Form
L
L
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
86.9
—
91.5
DAL
Dallas Wings
Home
24-16
(14-6 Home)
Form
L
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
PHO -4.6 (-110)DAL +4.6 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 178.4 (-110)Simulated 178.4
- Moneyline
-
PHO +160DAL -190
Simulated Outcome Probability
Phoenix Mercury
37.5%
Dallas Wings
62.5%
No edge at +160
No edge at -190
Our 10,000 iterations project the Dallas Wings to win outright in 62.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHO -4.6 / DAL +4.6
PHO covers
(-110)
27.4%
DAL covers
(-110)
+20.3% Edge
72.7%
Total
O/U: 178.4
OVER
(-110)
+1.3% Edge
53.7%
UNDER
(-110)
46.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: DAL holds an Offensive Rating of 111.8 vs PHO's Defensive Rating of 112.0.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: PHO ratings adjusted (OffRating: -6.5, DefRating: +1.2) with Kahleah Copper ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: DAL is 24-16 (Home: 14-6) vs PHO 14-26 (Away: 8-12).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: DAL factor: 1.036 | PHO factor: 0.964 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Dallas Wings winning outright in 62.5% of trials. Projected score: PHO 87 - DAL 92.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.1
ORtg: 109.4
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 107.6
DRtg: 108.1
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 107.6
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.0% / 44.6%
3-Point %
33.6% / 32.2%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 80.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Phoenix Mercury
Dallas Wings
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Phoenix Mercury
W
vs Toronto Tempo
101 - 69
|
Aug 29, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
73 - 80
|
Aug 27, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
84 - 94
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
89 - 99
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs Portland Fire
85 - 88
|
Aug 16, 2026
Dallas Wings
W
vs Connecticut Sun
97 - 71
|
Aug 30, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
96 - 78
|
Aug 25, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
92 - 70
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
vs Indiana Fever
91 - 85
|
Aug 20, 2026
L
@ Golden State Valkyries
70 - 78
|
Aug 17, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Dallas Wings defeated Phoenix Mercury
85 - 70
|
Jun 11, 2026