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WNBA Saturday, September 19 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CHI

Chicago Sky

Away 15-25 (5-15 Away)
W W L L L
Projected Final Score
79.8 — 88.8
ATL

Atlanta Dream

Home 26-14 (13-7 Home)
W W W L W
Spread
CHI -9.5 (-110)
ATL +9.5 (-110)
Total
Posted 168.6 (-110)
Simulated 168.6
Moneyline
CHI +305
ATL -385

Simulated Outcome Probability

Chicago Sky
25.3%
Atlanta Dream
74.7%
+0.6% edge at +305
No edge at -385

Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 74.7% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: CHI -9.5 / ATL +9.5
CHI covers (-110) 9.2%
ATL covers (-110) +38.4% Edge 90.8%
Total O/U: 168.6
OVER (-110) 38.6%
UNDER (-110) +9.0% Edge 61.4%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 124.6 vs CHI's Defensive Rating of 113.1.
  • • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 26-14 (Home: 13-7) vs CHI 15-25 (Away: 5-15).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.036 | CHI factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 74.7% of trials. Projected score: CHI 80 - ATL 89.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.5 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 111.8 Offensive Rating ORtg: 122.4
DRtg: 110.7 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 106.3

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
42.3% / 40.9%
3-Point %
31.2% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
77.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Chicago Sky

Atlanta Dream

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Chicago Sky

L @ New York Liberty
66 - 85 | Aug 29, 2026
L @ Connecticut Sun
81 - 87 | Aug 25, 2026
L vs Indiana Fever
90 - 113 | Aug 23, 2026
W vs Golden State Valkyries
73 - 70 | Aug 21, 2026
W vs New York Liberty
93 - 86 | Aug 18, 2026

Atlanta Dream

W vs Minnesota Lynx
89 - 81 | Aug 30, 2026
L vs Portland Fire
83 - 101 | Aug 28, 2026
W @ Los Angeles Sparks
78 - 71 | Aug 24, 2026
W @ Phoenix Mercury
99 - 89 | Aug 22, 2026
W @ Los Angeles Sparks
124 - 88 | Aug 20, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Atlanta Dream defeated Chicago Sky
93 - 91 | Jul 19, 2026
Away Atlanta Dream defeated Chicago Sky
82 - 75 | Jun 09, 2026

Injury Reports

Chicago Sky 4 reported

G DiJonai Carrington
Out
G Natasha Cloud
Day-To-Day
G Skylar Diggins
Out
F Rickea Jackson
Out

Atlanta Dream 1 reported

F Brionna Jones
Out