WNBA
Sunday, September 20 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away
31-9
(17-3 Away)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
94.3
—
82.3
CON
Connecticut Sun
Home
10-30
(7-13 Home)
Form
L
W
L
L
L
- Spread
-
MIN +12.5 (-110)CON -12.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 176.6 (-110)Simulated 176.6
- Moneyline
-
MIN -490CON +375
Simulated Outcome Probability
Minnesota Lynx
80.6%
Connecticut Sun
19.4%
No edge at -490
No edge at +375
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 80.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIN +12.5 / CON -12.5
MIN covers
(-110)
+28.2% Edge
80.6%
CON covers
(-110)
19.4%
Total
O/U: 176.6
OVER
(-110)
+36.1% Edge
88.5%
UNDER
(-110)
11.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.3 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: CON holds an Offensive Rating of 106.5 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 102.4.
- • 📊 Season Records: CON is 10-30 (Home: 7-13) vs MIN 31-9 (Away: 17-3).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CON factor: 0.979 | MIN factor: 1.007 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 80.6% of trials. Projected score: MIN 94 - CON 82.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 76.5
ORtg: 123.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 108.8
DRtg: 103.1
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 108.2
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.8% / 44.1%
3-Point %
38.0% / 32.7%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 81.0%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Minnesota Lynx
Connecticut Sun
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Minnesota Lynx
L
@ Atlanta Dream
81 - 89
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
66 - 80
|
Aug 24, 2026
W
@ Washington Mystics
94 - 84
|
Aug 21, 2026
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
92 - 87
|
Aug 15, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
85 - 81
|
Aug 12, 2026
Connecticut Sun
L
@ Dallas Wings
71 - 97
|
Aug 30, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
91 - 111
|
Aug 28, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
64 - 89
|
Aug 26, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
87 - 81
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
@ Los Angeles Sparks
68 - 77
|
Aug 22, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Minnesota Lynx defeated Connecticut Sun
86 - 80
|
Jul 08, 2026
Away
Connecticut Sun defeated Minnesota Lynx
90 - 89
|
Jul 06, 2026