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WNBA Sunday, September 20 at 03:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY

New York Liberty

Away 24-16 (10-10 Away)
W L W L W
Projected Final Score
96.2 — 88.3
TOR

Toronto Tempo

Home 11-29 (7-13 Home)
W L L L L
Spread
NY +7.9 (-110)
TOR -7.9 (-110)
Total
Posted 184.5 (-110)
Simulated 184.5
Moneyline
NY -280
TOR +230

Simulated Outcome Probability

New York Liberty
70.8%
Toronto Tempo
29.2%
No edge at -280
No edge at +230

Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 70.8% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: NY +7.9 / TOR -7.9
NY covers (-110) +18.4% Edge 70.8%
TOR covers (-110) 29.2%
Total O/U: 184.5
OVER (-110) +43.3% Edge 95.7%
UNDER (-110) 4.3%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 79.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: TOR holds an Offensive Rating of 110.3 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 104.8.
  • • 📊 Season Records: TOR is 11-29 (Home: 7-13) vs NY 24-16 (Away: 10-10).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: TOR factor: 0.979 | NY factor: 1.007 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 70.8% of trials. Projected score: NY 96 - TOR 88.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.8 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 114.6 Offensive Rating ORtg: 112.6
DRtg: 105.5 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 113.6

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
46.2% / 44.5%
3-Point %
34.9% / 34.0%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 79.0%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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New York Liberty

Toronto Tempo

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

New York Liberty

W vs Chicago Sky
85 - 66 | Aug 29, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
60 - 79 | Aug 27, 2026
W vs Indiana Fever
109 - 102 | Aug 22, 2026
L @ Chicago Sky
86 - 93 | Aug 18, 2026
W @ Connecticut Sun
82 - 75 | Aug 15, 2026

Toronto Tempo

L @ Phoenix Mercury
69 - 101 | Aug 29, 2026
L @ Las Vegas Aces
73 - 93 | Aug 28, 2026
L @ Seattle Storm
78 - 90 | Aug 26, 2026
L vs Las Vegas Aces
78 - 88 | Aug 23, 2026
W vs Portland Fire
82 - 79 | Aug 21, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Toronto Tempo defeated New York Liberty
93 - 91 | Jul 12, 2026
Home New York Liberty defeated Toronto Tempo
97 - 82 | Jun 03, 2026

Injury Reports

New York Liberty 1 reported

F Satou Sabally
Out

Toronto Tempo 3 reported

G Marina Mabrey
Out
F Aneesah Morrow
Out
G Brittney Sykes
Out