NHL
Thursday, October 15 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
Away
3-3-1
(0-1-1 Away)
Form
W
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
3.34
—
3.49
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Home
3-3-1
(2-2-0 Home)
Form
L
W
L
W
L
- Spread
-
BUF +1.5 (-245)TOR -1.5 (+200)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-120)Simulated 6.8
- Moneyline
-
BUF +100TOR -120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Buffalo Sabres
47.9%
Toronto Maple Leafs
52.1%
No edge at +100
No edge at -120
Our 10,000 iterations project the Toronto Maple Leafs to win outright in 52.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: BUF +1.5 / TOR -1.5
BUF covers
(-245)
68.2%
TOR covers
(+200)
31.8%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-120)
+0.2% Edge
54.7%
UNDER
(+100)
45.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.897 projected SV%) vs TOR Sergei Bobrovsky (.890 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: BUF dresses 2.79 goals/game of talent (led by Thompson, Dahlin, Norris) | TOR dresses 3.34 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Matthews, Marchenko).
- • 📐 Model Rates: BUF 3.25 vs TOR 3.61 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.8% of trials. Most common finals: 4-3 (6.0%), 3-4 (5.8%), 2-3 (5.4%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TOR 52.2% no-vig, Over 6.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Conor Timmins (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Matt Grzelcyk (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TOR - Chris Tanev (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Toronto Maple Leafs winning in 52.1% of trials. Projected score: BUF 3.34 - TOR 3.49. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Buffalo Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 24
- Shots Faced
- 665
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky
- Proj SV%
- .890
- Starts
- 35
- Shots Faced
- 879
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Buffalo Sabres
Toronto Maple Leafs
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Buffalo Sabres
L
@ Montréal Canadiens
3 - 4
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
vs Florida Panthers
5 - 3
|
Oct 12, 2026
L
vs Utah Mammoth
1 - 4
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Dallas Stars
0 - 4
|
Oct 08, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Wild
3 - 2
|
Oct 06, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs
L
@ Utah Mammoth
4 - 5
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
@ Colorado Avalanche
6 - 3
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4
|
Oct 08, 2026
W
vs Nashville Predators
5 - 4
|
Oct 06, 2026
L
vs Ottawa Senators
2 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026