MLS
Saturday, October 17 at 02:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLT
Charlotte FC
Away
13-7-8
Form
W
D
W
L
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.52
—
2.14
Expected Goals
PHI
Philadelphia Union
Home
12-6-10
Form
W
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
CLT +1.3 (-140)PHI -1.3 (+105)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-115)Simulated 3.7
- Moneyline
-
CLT +390PHI -185
Simulated Outcome Probability
Charlotte FC Win
26.3%
Draw / Tie
23.2%
Philadelphia Union Win
50.6%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Charlotte FC Win: 26.3%, Draw: 23.2%, and Philadelphia Union Win: 50.6%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
9.0%
#2
2-1
8.6%
#3
2-2
7.3%
#4
3-1
6.3%
#5
1-2
6.3%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.7%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
30.3%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLT +1.3 / PHI -1.3
CLT covers
(-140)
+11.2% Edge
69.5%
PHI covers
(+105)
30.5%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-115)
50.3%
UNDER
(-120)
49.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: PHI projected match xG: 2.13 | CLT projected match xG: 1.55 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: PHI Win: 50.6% | Draw: 23.2% | CLT Win: 26.3%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.7% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.3%), 3-1 (6.3%), 1-2 (6.3%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: PHI record: 12-6-10 (Home: ) vs CLT record: 13-7-8 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: PHI factor: 1.081 | CLT factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **PHI Moneyline** (50.6% simulated win probability vs 23.2% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLT +1.3** (69.5% cover probability). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.7% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Charlotte FC
W
vs FC Dallas
3 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
0 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
@ D.C. United
2 - 1
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ FC Cincinnati
3 - 3
|
Sep 12, 2026
W
@ CF Montréal
2 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
Philadelphia Union
W
vs Real Salt Lake
2 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs Orlando City SC
4 - 2
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
@ Sporting Kansas City
4 - 3
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
@ San Diego FC
5 - 0
|
Sep 13, 2026
W
vs FC Cincinnati
5 - 0
|
Sep 09, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Charlotte FC defeated Philadelphia Union
2 - 1
|
Apr 04, 2026