MLS
Saturday, October 17 at 04:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
STL
St. Louis CITY SC
Away
14-8-6
Form
D
W
W
W
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.9
—
1.67
Expected Goals
MIN
Minnesota United FC
Home
7-9-12
Form
L
L
L
L
D
- Spread
-
STL +0.3 (-145)MIN -0.3 (+105)
- Total
-
Posted 3.4 (+110)Simulated 3.6
- Moneyline
-
STL +160MIN +135
Simulated Outcome Probability
St. Louis CITY SC Win
42.8%
Draw / Tie
23.9%
Minnesota United FC Win
33.3%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of St. Louis CITY SC Win: 42.8%, Draw: 23.9%, and Minnesota United FC Win: 33.3%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
9.9%
#2
1-2
8.3%
#3
2-2
7.4%
#4
2-1
7.1%
#5
1-3
5.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.8%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
30.2%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: STL +0.3 / MIN -0.3
STL covers
(-145)
+7.5% Edge
66.7%
MIN covers
(+105)
33.3%
Total
O/U: 3.4
OVER
(+110)
+0.6% Edge
48.2%
UNDER
(-150)
51.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MIN projected match xG: 1.65 | STL projected match xG: 1.89 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MIN Win: 33.3% | Draw: 23.9% | STL Win: 42.8%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.8% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.4%), 2-1 (7.1%), 1-3 (5.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MIN record: 7-9-12 (Home: ) vs STL record: 14-8-6 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 0.941 | STL factor: 1.061 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **STL Moneyline** (42.8% simulated win probability). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **STL +0.3** (66.7% cover probability). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.8% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
St. Louis CITY SC
W
vs LA Galaxy
6 - 2
|
Oct 11, 2026
W
@ Red Bull New York
3 - 0
|
Sep 30, 2026
W
vs Toronto FC
3 - 1
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
vs Minnesota United FC
4 - 2
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ Portland Timbers
2 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
Minnesota United FC
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ Seattle Sounders FC
1 - 3
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
vs LA Galaxy
2 - 3
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ St. Louis CITY SC
2 - 4
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs FC Dallas
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
St. Louis CITY SC defeated Minnesota United FC
4 - 2
|
Sep 12, 2026