NHL
Friday, October 16 at 09:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PIT
Pittsburgh Penguins
Away
3-3-1
(1-2-1 Away)
Form
L
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
3.18
—
3.91
COL
Colorado Avalanche
Home
4-2-0
(2-1-0 Home)
Form
W
L
W
L
W
- Spread
-
PIT N/A (-110)COL N/A (-110)
- Total
-
Posted N/A (-110)Simulated 7.1
- Moneyline
-
PIT N/ACOL N/A
Simulated Outcome Probability
Pittsburgh Penguins
38.7%
Colorado Avalanche
61.3%
No edge at N/A
No edge at N/A
Our 10,000 iterations project the Colorado Avalanche to win outright in 61.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: N/A
PIT covers
(-110)
+7.9% Edge
60.3%
COL covers
(-110)
39.7%
Total
O/U:
OVER
(-110)
+5.9% Edge
58.3%
UNDER
(-110)
41.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PIT Arturs Silovs (.893 projected SV%) vs COL Mackenzie Blackwood (.896 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PIT dresses 3.07 goals/game of talent (led by Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson) | COL dresses 3.45 goals/game of talent (led by MacKinnon, Necas, Makar).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PIT 3.02 vs COL 3.75 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.1% of trials. Most common finals: 3-4 (6.3%), 2-3 (5.8%), 4-3 (5.0%).
- • 📭 No Market Yet: Graded against a standard -1.5 home puck line and 6.5 total until books post this game.
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Justin Brazeau (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Trevor van Riemsdyk (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Logan O'Connor (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Colorado Avalanche winning in 61.3% of trials. Projected score: PIT 3.18 - COL 3.91.
Starting Goalies
Pittsburgh Penguins
Arturs Silovs
- Proj SV%
- .893
- Starts
- 27
- Shots Faced
- 708
Colorado Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 27
- Shots Faced
- 684
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Pittsburgh Penguins
L
@ Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 5
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
vs Dallas Stars
2 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 3
|
Oct 09, 2026
L
@ Washington Capitals
3 - 5
|
Oct 07, 2026
L
vs Winnipeg Jets
2 - 3
|
Oct 05, 2026
Colorado Avalanche
W
@ Dallas Stars
3 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 6
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
@ Calgary Flames
7 - 3
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
@ Winnipeg Jets
2 - 3
|
Oct 07, 2026
W
vs St. Louis Blues
6 - 1
|
Oct 03, 2026