Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians
- Spread
-
TB +1.5 (-200)CLE -1.5 (+170)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-120)Simulated 7.6
- Moneyline
-
TB +110CLE -130
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Tampa Bay Rays to win outright in 55.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at CLE's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: CLE enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 71%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Tampa Bay Rays winning outright in 55.8% of run trials, with a projected score of TB 4.2 - CLE 3.4. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with TB +1.5 covering in 71.7% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the OVER 6.5 which hit in 56.8% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **56.0%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Griffin Jax (K%: 25.3%, BB%: 8.1%) faces CLE's top of the order (avg OBP: 33.1%). Home starter Gavin Williams (K%: 33.2%, BB%: 9.0%) matchups against TB's first three hitters (avg OBP: 35.9%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.