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MLS Wednesday, October 21 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DC

D.C. United

Away 7-12-11
L D L W L
Projected Expected Goals
1.5 — 1.9
Expected Goals
CIN

FC Cincinnati

Home 10-9-11
D L W L L
Spread
DC +0.9 (+100)
CIN -0.9 (-125)
Total
Posted 3.5 (-125)
Simulated 3.4
Moneyline
DC +365
CIN -170

Simulated Outcome Probability

D.C. United Win
29.7%
Draw / Tie
23.9%
FC Cincinnati Win
46.4%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of D.C. United Win: 29.7%, Draw: 23.9%, and FC Cincinnati Win: 46.4%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.6%
#2
2-1
9.1%
#3
1-2
7.2%
#4
2-2
6.6%
#5
2-0
6.0%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
67.3%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
32.7%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: DC +0.9 / CIN -0.9
DC covers (+100) +3.6% Edge 53.6%
CIN covers (-125) 46.4%
Total O/U: 3.5
OVER (-125) 44.3%
UNDER (-100) +5.7% Edge 55.7%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CIN projected match xG: 1.9 | DC projected match xG: 1.5 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CIN Win: 46.4% | Draw: 23.9% | DC Win: 29.7%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 67.3% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%), 2-2 (6.6%), 2-0 (6.0%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: CIN record: 9-9-11 (Home: ) vs DC record: 7-12-10 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CIN factor: 0.971 | DC factor: 0.971 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CIN Moneyline** (46.4% simulated win probability vs 23.9% draw). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (55.7% cover probability, projected total: 3.4). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (67.3% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

D.C. United

L @ Orlando City SC
1 - 4 | Oct 17, 2026
W vs Red Bull New York
2 - 1 | Oct 14, 2026
L @ Inter Miami CF
0 - 4 | Oct 10, 2026
L @ Vancouver Whitecaps
3 - 3 | Sep 26, 2026
L vs Charlotte FC
1 - 2 | Sep 19, 2026

FC Cincinnati

L vs Columbus Crew
0 - 2 | Oct 18, 2026
L vs New England Revolution
2 - 3 | Oct 14, 2026
W @ Atlanta United FC
3 - 1 | Oct 10, 2026
L @ CF Montréal
1 - 3 | Sep 26, 2026
L @ Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 2 | Sep 19, 2026