NHL
Wednesday, October 21 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Away
3-6-3
(1-4-1 Away)
Form
L
L
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
2.7
—
3.53
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
Home
4-4-2
(3-3-0 Home)
Form
L
W
L
W
L
- Spread
-
PHI +1.5 (-155)BUF -1.5 (+130)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-115)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
PHI +170BUF -205
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Flyers
36.1%
Buffalo Sabres
63.9%
No edge at +170
No edge at -205
Our 10,000 iterations project the Buffalo Sabres to win outright in 63.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI +1.5 / BUF -1.5
PHI covers
(-155)
58.9%
BUF covers
(+130)
41.1%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-115)
51.3%
UNDER
(-105)
48.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PHI Dan Vladar (.898 projected SV%) vs BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.896 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PHI dresses 2.41 goals/game of talent (led by Zegras, Michkov, Dvorak) | BUF dresses 3.12 goals/game of talent (led by Thompson, Dahlin, Zucker).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PHI 2.62 vs BUF 3.28 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.0% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.1%), 3-4 (6.3%), 3-2 (5.6%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (BUF 64.5% no-vig, Over 6.0 51.1%).
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Travis Konecny (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Owen Tippett (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Cam York (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Sam Carrick (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Conor Timmins (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Matt Grzelcyk (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Buffalo Sabres winning in 63.9% of trials. Projected score: PHI 2.7 - BUF 3.53. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Philadelphia Flyers
Dan Vladar
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 39
- Shots Faced
- 997
Buffalo Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 819
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Philadelphia Flyers
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