NHL
Wednesday, October 21 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
FLA
Florida Panthers
Away
5-3-2
(3-2-2 Away)
Form
L
L
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
2.85
—
3.09
OTT
Ottawa Senators
Home
7-3-0
(4-1-0 Home)
Form
W
W
L
W
L
- Spread
-
FLA +1.0 (-230)OTT -1.0 (+185)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-110)Simulated 5.9
- Moneyline
-
FLA -110OTT -110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Florida Panthers
46.0%
Ottawa Senators
54.0%
No edge at -110
+1.6% edge at -110
Our 10,000 iterations project the Ottawa Senators to win outright in 54.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: FLA +1.0 / OTT -1.0
FLA covers
(-230)
59.6%
OTT covers
(+185)
+5.3% Edge
40.4%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-110)
51.8%
UNDER
(-110)
48.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: FLA Akira Schmid (.894 projected SV%) vs OTT Linus Ullmark (.897 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: FLA dresses 2.66 goals/game of talent (led by Tkachuk, Tkachuk, Reinhart) | OTT dresses 2.88 goals/game of talent (led by Stützle, Batherson, Sanderson).
- • 📐 Model Rates: FLA 2.61 vs OTT 3.17 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 21.1% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.7%), 3-2 (6.9%), 3-4 (5.9%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (OTT 50.0% no-vig, Over 5.5 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Brad Marchand (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Jonah Gadjovich (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Aleksander Barkov (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - William Eklund (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Thomas Chabot (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Ottawa Senators winning in 54.0% of trials. Projected score: FLA 2.85 - OTT 3.09. Value: OTT -1.0 puck line (+185), +5.3 pts.
Starting Goalies
Florida Panthers
Akira Schmid
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 24
- Shots Faced
- 673
Ottawa Senators
Linus Ullmark
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 37
- Shots Faced
- 901
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Florida Panthers
Ottawa Senators
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Florida Panthers
W
vs Seattle Kraken
8 - 3
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Vancouver Canucks
3 - 2
|
Oct 15, 2026
W
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
7 - 3
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
@ Buffalo Sabres
3 - 5
|
Oct 12, 2026
L
vs Minnesota Wild
1 - 4
|
Oct 10, 2026
Ottawa Senators
L
@ Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 3
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs New York Islanders
2 - 1
|
Oct 15, 2026
L
vs St. Louis Blues
2 - 7
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
@ New Jersey Devils
4 - 1
|
Oct 12, 2026
W
vs Nashville Predators
3 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026