MLS
Saturday, October 24 at 01:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NSH
Nashville SC
Away
20-7-3
Form
W
W
W
W
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.71
—
1.48
Expected Goals
MTL
CF Montréal
Home
6-7-17
Form
L
W
L
L
D
- Spread
-
NSH -0.9 (-115)MTL +0.9 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 2.9 (-120)Simulated 3.2
- Moneyline
-
NSH -165MTL +380
Simulated Outcome Probability
Nashville SC Win
42.3%
Draw / Tie
25.5%
CF Montréal Win
32.2%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Nashville SC Win: 42.3%, Draw: 25.5%, and CF Montréal Win: 32.2%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.0%
#2
1-2
8.3%
#3
2-1
7.5%
#4
2-2
6.4%
#5
0-2
6.1%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
64.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
35.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NSH -0.9 / MTL +0.9
NSH covers
(-115)
42.3%
MTL covers
(-110)
+5.3% Edge
57.7%
Total
O/U: 2.9
OVER
(-120)
+6.9% Edge
61.4%
UNDER
(-110)
38.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MTL projected match xG: 1.47 | NSH projected match xG: 1.72 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MTL Win: 32.2% | Draw: 25.5% | NSH Win: 42.3%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 64.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.0%), 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.5%), 2-2 (6.4%), 0-2 (6.1%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MTL record: 6-7-17 (Home: ) vs NSH record: 20-7-3 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MTL factor: 0.971 | NSH factor: 1.061 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **NSH Moneyline** (42.3% simulated win probability). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **MTL +0.9** (57.7% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.9 Goals** (61.4% cover probability, projected total: 3.19). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (64.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Nashville SC
L
@ San Jose Earthquakes
1 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Sporting Kansas City
4 - 0
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ Austin FC
4 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs Toronto FC
2 - 0
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
vs Chicago Fire FC
3 - 0
|
Sep 19, 2026
CF Montréal
L
@ Seattle Sounders FC
1 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
vs Atlanta United FC
0 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs FC Cincinnati
3 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
vs Columbus Crew
0 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Nashville SC defeated CF Montréal
1 - 0
|
Jul 22, 2026