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MLS Saturday, October 24 at 03:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TOR

Toronto FC

Away 8-12-10
L L W D W
Projected Expected Goals
1.46 — 1.95
Expected Goals
CLB

Columbus Crew

Home 10-5-15
W W L W W
Spread
TOR -0.5 (-110)
CLB +0.5 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.4 (-110)
Simulated 3.4
Moneyline
TOR +220
CLB +110

Simulated Outcome Probability

Toronto FC Win
28.6%
Draw / Tie
23.5%
Columbus Crew Win
47.9%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Toronto FC Win: 28.6%, Draw: 23.5%, and Columbus Crew Win: 47.9%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.5%
#2
2-1
9.0%
#3
1-2
6.6%
#4
2-2
6.5%
#5
2-0
6.3%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
66.6%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
33.4%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: TOR -0.5 / CLB +0.5
TOR covers (-110) 28.6%
CLB covers (-110) +19.0% Edge 71.4%
Total O/U: 3.4
OVER (-110) 44.5%
UNDER (-110) +3.1% Edge 55.5%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 1.93 | TOR projected match xG: 1.45 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 47.9% | Draw: 23.5% | TOR Win: 28.6%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 66.6% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (6.6%), 2-2 (6.5%), 2-0 (6.3%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 10-5-15 (Home: ) vs TOR record: 8-12-10 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLB factor: 1.051 | TOR factor: 1.001 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (47.9% simulated win probability vs 23.5% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLB +0.5** (71.4% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.4 Goals** (55.5% cover probability, projected total: 3.41). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (66.6% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Toronto FC

W @ Red Bull New York
2 - 0 | Oct 17, 2026
L vs Orlando City SC
3 - 3 | Oct 14, 2026
W vs CF Montréal
2 - 1 | Oct 10, 2026
L @ Nashville SC
0 - 2 | Sep 26, 2026
L @ St. Louis CITY SC
1 - 3 | Sep 19, 2026

Columbus Crew

W @ FC Cincinnati
2 - 0 | Oct 18, 2026
W vs Charlotte FC
3 - 1 | Oct 14, 2026
L @ Orlando City SC
2 - 3 | Oct 10, 2026
W vs Inter Miami CF
2 - 1 | Sep 27, 2026
W @ CF Montréal
2 - 0 | Sep 19, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Toronto FC defeated Columbus Crew
2 - 1 | Mar 21, 2026