NHL
Friday, October 23 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MTL
Montréal Canadiens
Away
4-3-2
(1-1-1 Away)
Form
W
W
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
3.43
—
2.94
CHI
Chicago Blackhawks
Home
3-6-0
(3-2-0 Home)
Form
L
L
W
W
L
- Spread
-
MTL -1.5 (+155)CHI +1.5 (-185)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-105)Simulated 6.4
- Moneyline
-
MTL -165CHI +140
Simulated Outcome Probability
Montréal Canadiens
57.7%
Chicago Blackhawks
42.3%
No edge at -165
+0.6% edge at +140
Our 10,000 iterations project the Montréal Canadiens to win outright in 57.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MTL -1.5 / CHI +1.5
MTL covers
(+155)
35.8%
CHI covers
(-185)
64.2%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-105)
47.9%
UNDER
(-115)
52.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: MTL Jacob Fowler (.897 projected SV%) vs CHI Spencer Knight (.897 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: MTL dresses 2.93 goals/game of talent (led by Caufield, Hutson, Slafkovský) | CHI dresses 2.55 goals/game of talent (led by Bedard, Kane, Bertuzzi).
- • 📐 Model Rates: MTL 3.09 vs CHI 2.87 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.5% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (6.7%), 4-3 (5.9%), 2-3 (5.8%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (CHI 40.1% no-vig, Over 6.5 48.9%).
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Nick Suzuki (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Ivan Demidov (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Florian Xhekaj (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: CHI - Andrew Mangiapane (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Montréal Canadiens winning in 57.7% of trials. Projected score: MTL 3.43 - CHI 2.94. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Montréal Canadiens
Jacob Fowler
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 14
- Shots Faced
- 359
Chicago Blackhawks
Spencer Knight
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 40
- Shots Faced
- 1173
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Montréal Canadiens
Chicago Blackhawks
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Montréal Canadiens
L
vs San Jose Sharks
3 - 4
|
Oct 20, 2026
W
vs Buffalo Sabres
4 - 3
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
@ Washington Capitals
4 - 5
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs Buffalo Sabres
4 - 3
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
vs Detroit Red Wings
1 - 0
|
Oct 10, 2026
Chicago Blackhawks
L
vs Dallas Stars
0 - 4
|
Oct 17, 2026
W
vs Winnipeg Jets
4 - 3
|
Oct 15, 2026
W
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 3
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 5
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ New York Islanders
1 - 4
|
Oct 08, 2026