NBA
Thursday, October 22 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
Away
0-1
(0-1 Away)
Projected Final Score
117.4
—
120.8
PHI
Philadelphia 76ers
Home
2-0
(1-0 Home)
- Spread
-
CLE +2.5 (-110)PHI -2.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 237.0 (-110)Simulated 238.2
- Moneyline
-
CLE +120PHI -140
Simulated Outcome Probability
Cleveland Cavaliers
39.7%
Philadelphia 76ers
60.3%
No edge at +120
+2.0% edge at -140
Our 10,000 iterations project the Philadelphia 76ers to win outright in 60.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLE +2.5 / PHI -2.5
CLE covers
(-110)
46.8%
PHI covers
(-110)
+0.8% Edge
53.2%
Total
O/U: 237.0
OVER
(-110)
52.3%
UNDER
(-110)
47.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Rotation Scoring: CLE rotation carries 129.5 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Mitchell, Harden, Mobley) | PHI rotation carries 137.5 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Maxey, Brown, Embiid).
- • 🛡️ Team Defense: CLE allows 115.4/game | PHI allows 115.7/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
- • 📐 Model Line: PHI by 4.9, total 242.6 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 70% toward the posted spread and 85% toward the total (PHI -2.5, total 237.0).
- • ⚠️ Questionable: CLE - Jarrett Allen is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 26.9 minutes.
- • ❌ Injury: CLE - Nae'Qwan Tomlin is Out; his 15.3 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ⚠️ Questionable: PHI - Dean Wade is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 21.5 minutes.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Dominick Barlow is Out; his 20.8 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Philadelphia 76ers winning in 60.3% of trials. Projected score: CLE 117 - PHI 121. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
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