NBA
Thursday, October 22 at 09:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DEN
Denver Nuggets
Away
0-1
(0-1 Away)
Projected Final Score
114.4
—
121.8
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
Home
2-0
(1-0 Home)
- Spread
-
DEN +8.0 (-110)OKC -8.0 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 236.5 (-110)Simulated 236.2
- Moneyline
-
DEN +260OKC -325
Simulated Outcome Probability
Denver Nuggets
27.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder
72.3%
No edge at +260
No edge at -325
Our 10,000 iterations project the Oklahoma City Thunder to win outright in 72.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: DEN +8.0 / OKC -8.0
DEN covers
(-110)
51.4%
OKC covers
(-110)
48.6%
Total
O/U: 236.5
OVER
(-110)
48.9%
UNDER
(-110)
51.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Rotation Scoring: DEN rotation carries 128.2 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Jokic, Murray, DeRozan) | OKC rotation carries 124.1 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Holmgren).
- • 🛡️ Team Defense: DEN allows 116.9/game | OKC allows 107.8/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
- • 📐 Model Line: OKC by 6.3, total 233.3 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 70% toward the posted spread and 85% toward the total (OKC -8.0, total 236.5).
- • ⚠️ Questionable: DEN - Spencer Jones is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 19.6 minutes.
- • ❌ Injury: DEN - Julian Strawther is Out; his 17.1 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Oklahoma City Thunder winning in 72.3% of trials. Projected score: DEN 114 - OKC 122. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
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