NBA Thursday, October 29 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SAC

Sacramento Kings

Away 0-5 (0-3 Away)
L L L L
Projected Final Score
115.3 — 121.2
NO

New Orleans Pelicans

Home 1-4 (1-2 Home)
L L L L
Spread
SAC +6.0 (-110)
NO -6.0 (-110)
Total
Posted 236.0 (-110)
Simulated 236.5
Moneyline
SAC +195
NO -235

Simulated Outcome Probability

Sacramento Kings
32.0%
New Orleans Pelicans
68.0%
No edge at +195
No edge at -235

Our 10,000 iterations project the New Orleans Pelicans to win outright in 68.0% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: SAC +6.0 / NO -6.0
SAC covers (-110) 50.5%
NO covers (-110) 49.5%
Total O/U: 236.0
OVER (-110) 50.7%
UNDER (-110) 49.3%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Rotation Scoring: SAC rotation carries 112.1 pts/game of scoring talent (led by LaVine, Sabonis, Hunter) | NO rotation carries 122.0 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Williamson, III, Bey).
  • • 🛡️ Team Defense: SAC allows 121.3/game | NO allows 120.2/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
  • • 📐 Model Line: NO by 5.5, total 238.2 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
  • • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 70% toward the posted spread and 85% toward the total (NO -6.0, total 236.0).
  • • 😴 Back-to-Back: NO played last night; 1.5 points of margin taken off.
  • • ❌ Injury: SAC - Keegan Murray is Out; his 32.8 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
  • • ❌ Injury: SAC - Maxime Raynaud is Out; his 25.8 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
  • • ❌ Injury: SAC - Ben Simmons is Out; his 20.6 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
  • • ❌ Injury: SAC - Dylan Cardwell is Out; his 19.9 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
  • • ⚠️ Questionable: NO - Jordan Poole is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 25.0 minutes.
  • • ❌ Injury: NO - Yves Missi is Out; his 21.7 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the New Orleans Pelicans winning in 68.0% of trials. Projected score: SAC 115 - NO 121. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.

Top Players (Per Game)

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Sacramento Kings

New Orleans Pelicans

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Sacramento Kings

L @ San Antonio Spurs
103 - 130 | Oct 27, 2026
L vs Memphis Grizzlies
112 - 123 | Oct 25, 2026
L vs Portland Trail Blazers
120 - 128 | Oct 23, 2026
L @ LA Clippers
96 - 121 | Oct 21, 2026

New Orleans Pelicans

L vs Denver Nuggets
91 - 104 | Oct 28, 2026
L @ Denver Nuggets
135 - 141 | Oct 24, 2026
L @ Utah Jazz
119 - 120 | Oct 23, 2026
L vs Indiana Pacers
120 - 123 | Oct 21, 2026