NBA
Thursday, October 29 at 08:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SAC
Sacramento Kings
Away
0-5
(0-3 Away)
Form
L
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
115.3
—
121.2
NO
New Orleans Pelicans
Home
1-4
(1-2 Home)
Form
L
L
L
L
- Spread
-
SAC +6.0 (-110)NO -6.0 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 236.0 (-110)Simulated 236.5
- Moneyline
-
SAC +195NO -235
Simulated Outcome Probability
Sacramento Kings
32.0%
New Orleans Pelicans
68.0%
No edge at +195
No edge at -235
Our 10,000 iterations project the New Orleans Pelicans to win outright in 68.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: SAC +6.0 / NO -6.0
SAC covers
(-110)
50.5%
NO covers
(-110)
49.5%
Total
O/U: 236.0
OVER
(-110)
50.7%
UNDER
(-110)
49.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Rotation Scoring: SAC rotation carries 112.1 pts/game of scoring talent (led by LaVine, Sabonis, Hunter) | NO rotation carries 122.0 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Williamson, III, Bey).
- • 🛡️ Team Defense: SAC allows 121.3/game | NO allows 120.2/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
- • 📐 Model Line: NO by 5.5, total 238.2 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 70% toward the posted spread and 85% toward the total (NO -6.0, total 236.0).
- • 😴 Back-to-Back: NO played last night; 1.5 points of margin taken off.
- • ❌ Injury: SAC - Keegan Murray is Out; his 32.8 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: SAC - Maxime Raynaud is Out; his 25.8 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: SAC - Ben Simmons is Out; his 20.6 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: SAC - Dylan Cardwell is Out; his 19.9 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ⚠️ Questionable: NO - Jordan Poole is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 25.0 minutes.
- • ❌ Injury: NO - Yves Missi is Out; his 21.7 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New Orleans Pelicans winning in 68.0% of trials. Projected score: SAC 115 - NO 121. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Top Players (Per Game)
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Sacramento Kings
New Orleans Pelicans
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Sacramento Kings
L
@ San Antonio Spurs
103 - 130
|
Oct 27, 2026
L
vs Memphis Grizzlies
112 - 123
|
Oct 25, 2026
L
vs Portland Trail Blazers
120 - 128
|
Oct 23, 2026
L
@ LA Clippers
96 - 121
|
Oct 21, 2026
New Orleans Pelicans
L
vs Denver Nuggets
91 - 104
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Denver Nuggets
135 - 141
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
@ Utah Jazz
119 - 120
|
Oct 23, 2026
L
vs Indiana Pacers
120 - 123
|
Oct 21, 2026