VegasSims - 10,000+ Sports Matchup Simulations

NBA Monday, November 02 at 07:00 PM EST

10,000 Sim Trials Run

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away 4-1 (1-1 Away)

Form

W W W L

Projected Final Score

114.0 — 116.6

CLE

Home 3-2 (3-0 Home)

Form

L W W W L

Oklahoma City Thunder

41.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers

58.2%

No edge at N/A

Our 10,000 iterations project the Cleveland Cavaliers to win outright in 58.2% of simulated game-runs.

Spread Line: N/A

OKC covers (-110) 48.7%

CLE covers (-110) 51.3%

Total O/U:

OVER (-110) 49.4%

UNDER (-110) 50.6%

• 🏀 Rotation Scoring: OKC rotation carries 114.3 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Gilgeous-Alexander, Mitchell, Hartenstein) | CLE rotation carries 127.5 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Mitchell, Harden, Mobley).
• 🛡️ Team Defense: OKC allows 107.6/game | CLE allows 115.6/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
• 📐 Model Line: CLE by 2.4, total 230.6 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
• 📭 No Market Yet: Graded against the model's own line (CLE -2.5, total 230.5) until books post this game.
• ❌ Injury: OKC - Jalen Williams is Out; his 29.6 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
• ❌ Injury: OKC - Chet Holmgren is Out; his 28.1 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
• ❌ Injury: OKC - Cason Wallace is Out; his 26.0 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
• ❌ Injury: OKC - Alex Caruso is Out; his 18.3 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
• ❌ Injury: CLE - Jaylon Tyson is Out; his 21.8 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
• ⚠️ Questionable: CLE - Meleek Thomas is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 15.0 minutes.

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Cleveland Cavaliers winning in 58.2% of trials. Projected score: OKC 114 - CLE 117.

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