NBA
Wednesday, November 04 at 07:00 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
Away
5-4
(4-2 Away)
Form
L
L
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
116.6
—
115.0
WSH
Washington Wizards
Home
4-4
(2-2 Home)
Form
W
L
L
W
W
- Spread
-
ATL -3.0 (-110)WSH +3.0 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 231.0 (-110)Simulated 231.6
- Moneyline
-
ATL -150WSH +130
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta Hawks
54.7%
Washington Wizards
45.3%
No edge at -150
+1.8% edge at +130
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Hawks to win outright in 54.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL -3.0 / WSH +3.0
ATL covers
(-110)
46.4%
WSH covers
(-110)
+1.2% Edge
53.6%
Total
O/U: 231.0
OVER
(-110)
50.4%
UNDER
(-110)
49.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Rotation Scoring: ATL rotation carries 110.0 pts/game of scoring talent (led by McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Okongwu) | WSH rotation carries 118.6 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Davis, Young, George).
- • 🛡️ Team Defense: ATL allows 115.8/game | WSH allows 122.7/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
- • 📐 Model Line: WSH by 1.6, total 234.3 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 70% toward the posted spread and 85% toward the total (WSH +3.0, total 231.0).
- • ⚠️ Questionable: ATL - Jalen Johnson is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 34.2 minutes.
- • ❌ Injury: ATL - Jock Landale is Out; his 18.9 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: ATL - Mouhamed Gueye is Out; his 15.3 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ⚠️ Questionable: WSH - Bilal Coulibaly is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 27.8 minutes.
- • ⚠️ Questionable: WSH - Alex Sarr is Day-To-Day; projected for 60% of his usual 26.3 minutes.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Justin Champagnie is Out; his 20.0 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Jamir Watkins is Out; his 20.0 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Hawks winning in 54.7% of trials. Projected score: ATL 117 - WSH 115. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Top Players (Per Game)
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Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta Hawks
W
@ Indiana Pacers
108 - 104
|
Nov 02, 2026
L
@ New Orleans Pelicans
99 - 121
|
Oct 31, 2026
W
vs Cleveland Cavaliers
114 - 111
|
Oct 29, 2026
L
vs Miami Heat
117 - 129
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Houston Rockets
110 - 120
|
Oct 26, 2026
Washington Wizards
W
@ Orlando Magic
103 - 94
|
Nov 02, 2026
W
vs Charlotte Hornets
95 - 79
|
Oct 30, 2026
L
@ Cleveland Cavaliers
111 - 121
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Charlotte Hornets
103 - 110
|
Oct 26, 2026
W
@ Chicago Bulls
124 - 120
|
Oct 24, 2026