NHL
Wednesday, November 04 at 07:30 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
OTT
Ottawa Senators
Away
10-6-1
(5-4-1 Away)
Form
W
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
3.18
—
3.43
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
Home
7-5-3
(3-4-0 Home)
Form
L
L
W
W
W
- Spread
-
OTT +1.5 (-225)BUF -1.5 (+185)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-120)Simulated 6.6
- Moneyline
-
OTT +105BUF -125
Simulated Outcome Probability
Ottawa Senators
45.9%
Buffalo Sabres
54.1%
No edge at +105
No edge at -125
Our 10,000 iterations project the Buffalo Sabres to win outright in 54.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: OTT +1.5 / BUF -1.5
OTT covers
(-225)
67.3%
BUF covers
(+185)
32.7%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-120)
51.4%
UNDER
(+100)
48.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: OTT Samuel Ersson (.888 projected SV%) vs BUF Colten Ellis (.895 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: OTT dresses 2.87 goals/game of talent (led by Stützle, Batherson, Sanderson) | BUF dresses 3.04 goals/game of talent (led by Thompson, Dahlin, Benson).
- • 📐 Model Rates: OTT 2.98 vs BUF 3.33 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.1% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (6.1%), 3-4 (6.0%), 3-2 (5.9%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (BUF 53.2% no-vig, Over 6.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - William Eklund (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Andre Burakovsky (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Warren Foegele (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ⚠️ Thin Roster: OTT is short 1 healthy skater(s); filled with replacement-level call-ups.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Konsta Helenius (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Matt Grzelcyk (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Justin Danforth (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Buffalo Sabres winning in 54.1% of trials. Projected score: OTT 3.18 - BUF 3.43. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Ottawa Senators
Samuel Ersson
- Proj SV%
- .889
- Starts
- 23
- Shots Faced
- 645
Buffalo Sabres
Colten Ellis
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 14
- Shots Faced
- 420
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Ottawa Senators
Buffalo Sabres
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Ottawa Senators
L
@ Anaheim Ducks
3 - 6
|
Nov 01, 2026
W
@ San Jose Sharks
5 - 1
|
Oct 31, 2026
L
@ Los Angeles Kings
5 - 6
|
Oct 29, 2026
L
@ Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 4
|
Oct 27, 2026
W
vs New York Rangers
7 - 4
|
Oct 24, 2026
Buffalo Sabres
W
@ Los Angeles Kings
3 - 2
|
Oct 31, 2026
W
@ Anaheim Ducks
7 - 6
|
Oct 29, 2026
W
@ San Jose Sharks
2 - 0
|
Oct 27, 2026
L
@ Washington Capitals
3 - 4
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 3
|
Oct 21, 2026