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MLS Saturday, November 07 at 04:00 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps

Away 18-7-8
D W L W W
Projected Expected Goals
1.7 — 1.5
Expected Goals
MTL

CF Montréal

Home 6-8-19
L D L L D
Spread
VAN +0.2 (-110)
MTL -0.2 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.2 (-110)
Simulated 3.2
Moneyline
VAN +135
MTL +175

Simulated Outcome Probability

Vancouver Whitecaps Win
41.6%
Draw / Tie
25.4%
CF Montréal Win
32.9%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Vancouver Whitecaps Win: 41.6%, Draw: 25.4%, and CF Montréal Win: 32.9%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.0%
#2
1-2
8.5%
#3
2-1
7.6%
#4
2-2
6.6%
#5
0-2
6.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
63.5%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
36.5%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: VAN +0.2 / MTL -0.2
VAN covers (-110) +14.7% Edge 67.1%
MTL covers (-110) 32.9%
Total O/U: 3.2
OVER (-110) 39.8%
UNDER (-110) +7.8% Edge 60.2%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MTL projected match xG: 1.48 | VAN projected match xG: 1.71 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MTL Win: 32.9% | Draw: 25.4% | VAN Win: 41.6%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 63.5% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (6.6%), 0-2 (6.2%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: MTL record: 6-8-19 (Home: ) vs VAN record: 18-7-8 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MTL factor: 0.951 | VAN factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **VAN Moneyline** (41.6% simulated win probability). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **VAN +0.2** (67.1% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.2 Goals** (60.2% cover probability, projected total: 3.2). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (63.5% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Vancouver Whitecaps

W vs Seattle Sounders FC
5 - 1 | Nov 01, 2026
W vs San Diego FC
4 - 1 | Oct 28, 2026
L @ Colorado Rapids
0 - 1 | Oct 24, 2026
W @ Austin FC
2 - 1 | Oct 17, 2026
L @ St. Louis CITY SC
0 - 0 | Oct 14, 2026

CF Montréal

L @ New York City FC
1 - 1 | Oct 31, 2026
L @ Charlotte FC
0 - 4 | Oct 28, 2026
L vs Nashville SC
0 - 2 | Oct 24, 2026
L @ Seattle Sounders FC
1 - 1 | Oct 17, 2026
L vs Atlanta United FC
0 - 3 | Oct 14, 2026