MLS
Saturday, November 07 at 04:00 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLB
Columbus Crew
Away
13-5-15
Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.66
—
1.79
Expected Goals
CHI
Chicago Fire FC
Home
16-7-10
Form
L
L
W
D
W
- Spread
-
CLB -0.1 (-110)CHI +0.1 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-110)Simulated 3.5
- Moneyline
-
CLB +165CHI +140
Simulated Outcome Probability
Columbus Crew Win
35.2%
Draw / Tie
24.1%
Chicago Fire FC Win
40.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Columbus Crew Win: 35.2%, Draw: 24.1%, and Chicago Fire FC Win: 40.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.1%
#2
2-1
8.7%
#3
1-2
8.1%
#4
2-2
7.0%
#5
2-0
5.3%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
68.6%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
31.4%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLB -0.1 / CHI +0.1
CLB covers
(-110)
35.2%
CHI covers
(-110)
+12.4% Edge
64.8%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-110)
45.3%
UNDER
(-110)
+2.3% Edge
54.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CHI projected match xG: 1.8 | CLB projected match xG: 1.66 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CHI Win: 40.8% | Draw: 24.1% | CLB Win: 35.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 68.6% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.0%), 2-0 (5.3%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CHI record: 16-7-10 (Home: ) vs CLB record: 13-5-15 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CHI factor: 1.001 | CLB factor: 1.081 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CHI Moneyline** (40.8% simulated win probability vs 24.1% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CHI +0.1** (64.8% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (54.7% cover probability, projected total: 3.45). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (68.6% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Columbus Crew
W
vs D.C. United
3 - 0
|
Oct 31, 2026
W
@ FC Dallas
2 - 0
|
Oct 28, 2026
W
vs Toronto FC
4 - 2
|
Oct 24, 2026
W
@ FC Cincinnati
2 - 0
|
Oct 18, 2026
W
vs Charlotte FC
3 - 1
|
Oct 14, 2026
Chicago Fire FC
W
@ Colorado Rapids
4 - 2
|
Oct 31, 2026
L
vs Orlando City SC
2 - 2
|
Oct 28, 2026
W
@ Atlanta United FC
3 - 2
|
Oct 24, 2026
L
@ New England Revolution
0 - 1
|
Oct 17, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Union
1 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Chicago Fire FC defeated Columbus Crew
0 - 0
|
Mar 07, 2026