NBA
Friday, November 06 at 07:00 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
WSH
Washington Wizards
Away
4-4
(2-2 Away)
Form
L
L
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
110.7
—
117.7
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
Home
5-4
(1-2 Home)
Form
L
W
L
W
W
- Spread
-
WSH +8.5 (-110)ATL -8.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 228.0 (-110)Simulated 228.4
- Moneyline
-
WSH +265ATL -330
Simulated Outcome Probability
Washington Wizards
28.6%
Atlanta Hawks
71.4%
+1.2% edge at +265
No edge at -330
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Hawks to win outright in 71.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: WSH +8.5 / ATL -8.5
WSH covers
(-110)
+2.2% Edge
54.6%
ATL covers
(-110)
45.4%
Total
O/U: 228.0
OVER
(-110)
50.9%
UNDER
(-110)
49.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Rotation Scoring: WSH rotation carries 112.3 pts/game of scoring talent (led by Young, Sarr, George) | ATL rotation carries 105.9 pts/game of scoring talent (led by McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Okongwu).
- • 🛡️ Team Defense: WSH allows 122.7/game | ATL allows 115.6/game (blended with last season and regressed toward league average).
- • 📐 Model Line: ATL by 3.7, total 229.3 before the market blend, including 2.2 points of home court.
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 70% toward the posted spread and 85% toward the total (ATL -8.5, total 228.0).
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Anthony Davis is Out; his 31.4 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Justin Champagnie is Out; his 20.0 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Jamir Watkins is Out; his 20.0 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: ATL - Jalen Johnson is Out; his 34.2 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: ATL - Jock Landale is Out; his 18.9 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
- • ❌ Injury: ATL - Mouhamed Gueye is Out; his 15.3 minutes are redistributed to the rotation.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Hawks winning in 71.4% of trials. Projected score: WSH 111 - ATL 118. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Top Players (Per Game)
Sort by:
Washington Wizards
Atlanta Hawks
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Washington Wizards
L
vs Atlanta Hawks
105 - 120
|
Nov 04, 2026
W
@ Orlando Magic
103 - 94
|
Nov 02, 2026
W
vs Charlotte Hornets
95 - 79
|
Oct 30, 2026
L
@ Cleveland Cavaliers
111 - 121
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Charlotte Hornets
103 - 110
|
Oct 26, 2026
Atlanta Hawks
W
@ Washington Wizards
120 - 105
|
Nov 04, 2026
W
@ Indiana Pacers
108 - 104
|
Nov 02, 2026
L
@ New Orleans Pelicans
99 - 121
|
Oct 31, 2026
W
vs Cleveland Cavaliers
114 - 111
|
Oct 29, 2026
L
vs Miami Heat
117 - 129
|
Oct 28, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta Hawks defeated Washington Wizards
120 - 105
|
Nov 04, 2026