NHL
Saturday, November 07 at 12:30 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
FLA
Florida Panthers
Away
9-5-2
(5-3-2 Away)
Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
3.01
—
3.4
WSH
Washington Capitals
Home
8-6-0
(6-4-0 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
FLA +1.5 (-245)WSH -1.5 (+200)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-110)Simulated 6.4
- Moneyline
-
FLA +100WSH -120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Florida Panthers
43.8%
Washington Capitals
56.3%
No edge at +100
+1.8% edge at -120
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Capitals to win outright in 56.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: FLA +1.5 / WSH -1.5
FLA covers
(-245)
65.8%
WSH covers
(+200)
+0.9% Edge
34.2%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-110)
+2.1% Edge
54.5%
UNDER
(-105)
45.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: FLA Jacob Markstrom (.891 projected SV%) vs WSH Logan Thompson (.900 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: FLA dresses 2.91 goals/game of talent (led by Tkachuk, Tkachuk, Reinhart) | WSH dresses 3.39 goals/game of talent (led by Tuch, Strome, Chychrun).
- • 📐 Model Rates: FLA 2.87 vs WSH 3.6 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.1% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (6.6%), 3-2 (6.1%), 3-4 (6.0%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (WSH 52.2% no-vig, Over 6.0 50.6%).
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Brad Marchand (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Jonah Gadjovich (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Aleksander Barkov (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Rasmus Sandin (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Vincent Desharnais (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Capitals winning in 56.3% of trials. Projected score: FLA 3.01 - WSH 3.4. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Florida Panthers
Jacob Markstrom
- Proj SV%
- .891
- Starts
- 34
- Shots Faced
- 833
Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson
- Proj SV%
- .900
- Starts
- 45
- Shots Faced
- 1217
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Florida Panthers
Washington Capitals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Florida Panthers
W
vs Chicago Blackhawks
5 - 3
|
Nov 04, 2026
L
vs Detroit Red Wings
3 - 5
|
Nov 02, 2026
W
vs Winnipeg Jets
5 - 2
|
Oct 30, 2026
W
@ Winnipeg Jets
5 - 1
|
Oct 27, 2026
W
@ Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 2
|
Oct 25, 2026
Washington Capitals
L
vs Dallas Stars
5 - 6
|
Nov 03, 2026
L
vs Minnesota Wild
1 - 5
|
Nov 01, 2026
W
@ Nashville Predators
4 - 3
|
Oct 29, 2026
W
vs Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 2
|
Oct 28, 2026
W
vs Buffalo Sabres
4 - 3
|
Oct 24, 2026