NHL
Tuesday, November 10 at 07:00 PM EST
10,000 Sim Trials Run
COL
Colorado Avalanche
Away
10-6-2
(3-5-0 Away)
Form
W
W
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
3.9
—
3.35
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Home
8-8-2
(4-5-1 Home)
Form
L
L
W
L
L
- Spread
-
COL N/A (-110)TOR N/A (-110)
- Total
-
Posted N/A (-110)Simulated 7.3
- Moneyline
-
COL N/ATOR N/A
Simulated Outcome Probability
Colorado Avalanche
58.5%
Toronto Maple Leafs
41.5%
No edge at N/A
No edge at N/A
Our 10,000 iterations project the Colorado Avalanche to win outright in 58.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: N/A
COL covers
(-110)
37.3%
TOR covers
(-110)
+10.3% Edge
62.7%
Total
O/U:
OVER
(-110)
+8.6% Edge
61.0%
UNDER
(-110)
39.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • π₯ Goaltending: COL Mackenzie Blackwood (.898 projected SV%) vs TOR Sergei Bobrovsky (.889 projected SV%).
- • π Lineup Scoring: COL dresses 3.43 goals/game of talent (led by MacKinnon, Necas, Makar) | TOR dresses 3.04 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Matthews, Tavares).
- • π Model Rates: COL 3.74 vs TOR 3.17 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • β±οΈ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.7% of trials. Most common finals: 4-3 (6.1%), 3-4 (5.6%), 3-2 (5.4%).
- • π No Market Yet: Graded against a standard +1.5 home puck line and 6.5 total until books post this game.
- • β Injury: COL - Josh Manson (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • β Injury: COL - Zachary L'Heureux (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • β Injury: TOR - Kirill Marchenko (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • β Injury: TOR - Morgan Rielly (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • β Injury: TOR - Nick Blankenburg (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Colorado Avalanche winning in 58.5% of trials. Projected score: COL 3.9 - TOR 3.35.
Starting Goalies
Colorado Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 35
- Shots Faced
- 913
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky
- Proj SV%
- .889
- Starts
- 43
- Shots Faced
- 1102
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Colorado Avalanche
Toronto Maple Leafs
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Colorado Avalanche
W
vs Detroit Red Wings
4 - 0
|
Nov 07, 2026
L
vs Nashville Predators
2 - 3
|
Nov 05, 2026
L
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 7
|
Nov 03, 2026
W
@ Chicago Blackhawks
5 - 2
|
Nov 02, 2026
W
vs Calgary Flames
5 - 2
|
Oct 31, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs
L
vs MontrΓ©al Canadiens
2 - 4
|
Nov 07, 2026
L
vs Utah Mammoth
2 - 3
|
Nov 03, 2026
W
@ Vancouver Canucks
4 - 2
|
Oct 31, 2026
L
@ Seattle Kraken
4 - 5
|
Oct 28, 2026
L
@ Calgary Flames
2 - 5
|
Oct 26, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Toronto Maple Leafs defeated Colorado Avalanche
6 - 3
|
Oct 10, 2026