MLB
Friday, July 10 at 06:40 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Away
52-42 (27-21 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
4.1
—
3.6
Projected Total: 7.7 (O/U: 9.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
PHI: -100
|
DET: -120
DET
Detroit Tigers
Home
43-50 (26-21 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Phillies Win Prob
53.4%
+3.4% Value Edge
Detroit Tigers Win Prob
46.6%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Philadelphia Phillies to win outright in 53.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI -0.1 / DET +0.1
PHI covers
(+100)
+3.4% Edge
53.4%
DET covers
(-100)
46.6%
Total
O/U: 9.0
OVER
(-110)
31.5%
UNDER
(-100)
+18.5% Edge
68.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: PHI starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.025) and Slugging (+0.061).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: PHI relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the DET bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at DET's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: DET enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 80%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Philadelphia Phillies winning outright in 53.4% of run trials, with a projected score of PHI 4.1 - DET 3.6. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with PHI -0.1 covering in 53.4% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 9.0 which hit in 68.5% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
PHI
Aaron Nola
Away Starter
ERA
5.61
WHIP
1.45
Record
3-9
IP
114.0
SO
116
GS
22
DET
Jack Flaherty
Home Starter
ERA
4.59
WHIP
1.41
Record
3-8
IP
86.1
SO
102
GS
19
Top Offensive Performers
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Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Philadelphia Phillies
W
@ Cincinnati Reds
1 - 0
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
@ Cincinnati Reds
5 - 11
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
@ Cincinnati Reds
4 - 1
|
Jul 07, 2026
L
@ Kansas City Royals
1 - 15
|
Jul 06, 2026
L
@ Kansas City Royals
2 - 5
|
Jul 05, 2026
Detroit Tigers
W
vs Athletics
4 - 1
|
Jul 09, 2026
W
vs Athletics
6 - 1
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
vs Athletics
6 - 2
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ Texas Rangers
6 - 3
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Texas Rangers
3 - 0
|
Jul 04, 2026