MLB
Friday, July 10 at 06:40 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
59-34 (30-16 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
4.5
—
4.9
Projected Total: 9.4 (O/U: 8.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIL: +105
|
PIT: -125
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Home
47-47 (24-24 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers Win Prob
43.2%
No Value Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates Win Prob
56.8%
+1.2% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Pittsburgh Pirates to win outright in 56.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL +1.2 / PIT -1.2
MIL covers
(-165)
59.0%
PIT covers
(+135)
41.0%
Total
O/U: 8.5
OVER
(-105)
+2.3% Edge
53.5%
UNDER
(-115)
46.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: PIT starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.067).
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at PIT's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: MIL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 73%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Pittsburgh Pirates winning outright in 56.8% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 4.5 - PIT 4.9. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with MIL +1.2 covering in 59.0% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the OVER 8.5 which hit in 53.5% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
Brandon Sproat
Away Starter
ERA
5.05
WHIP
1.39
Record
3-6
IP
92.2
SO
96
GS
18
PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
Home Starter
ERA
4.05
WHIP
1.19
Record
10-4
IP
122.1
SO
135
GS
21
Top Offensive Performers
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Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Milwaukee Brewers
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
8 - 4
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
@ St. Louis Cardinals
1 - 5
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
10 - 2
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 06, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
L
vs Atlanta Braves
5 - 10
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Braves
0 - 3
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Braves
12 - 4
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
11 - 5
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
7 - 1
|
Jul 04, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
5 - 0
|
Apr 26, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 3
|
Apr 25, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 0
|
Apr 24, 2026