MLB
Sunday, July 12 at 01:35 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
KC
Kansas City Royals
Away
38-58 (17-32 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
3.3
—
5.7
Projected Total: 9.0 (O/U: 9.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
KC: +130
|
BAL: -150
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Home
45-51 (27-25 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Kansas City Royals Win Prob
26.2%
No Value Edge
Baltimore Orioles Win Prob
73.8%
+13.8% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Baltimore Orioles to win outright in 73.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: KC +1.5 / BAL -1.5
KC covers
(-160)
43.4%
BAL covers
(+135)
+14.0% Edge
56.6%
Total
O/U: 9.5
OVER
(-115)
41.9%
UNDER
(-105)
+6.9% Edge
58.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đȘ Lineup Depth: BAL starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.020).
- • đ Bullpen Advantage: BAL relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the KC bullpen.
- • đ„ Momentum Streak: BAL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 77%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Baltimore Orioles winning outright in 73.8% of run trials, with a projected score of KC 3.4 - BAL 5.7. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with BAL -1.5 covering in 56.6% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 9.5 which hit in 58.1% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
KC
Seth Lugo
Away Starter
ERA
4.22
WHIP
1.37
Record
4-6
IP
123.2
SO
96
GS
22
BAL
Shane Baz
Home Starter
ERA
3.98
WHIP
1.39
Record
4-9
IP
122.0
SO
107
GS
21
Top Offensive Performers
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Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Kansas City Royals
L
@ Baltimore Orioles
1 - 6
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
@ Baltimore Orioles
3 - 5
|
Jul 10, 2026
L
@ New York Mets
3 - 7
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
@ New York Mets
2 - 6
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
@ New York Mets
16 - 12
|
Jul 07, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
W
vs Kansas City Royals
6 - 1
|
Jul 11, 2026
W
vs Kansas City Royals
5 - 3
|
Jul 10, 2026
W
vs Chicago Cubs
3 - 2
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
vs Chicago Cubs
7 - 9
|
Jul 08, 2026
L
vs Chicago Cubs
2 - 5
|
Jul 07, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Baltimore Orioles defeated Kansas City Royals
6 - 1
|
Jul 11, 2026
Home
Baltimore Orioles defeated Kansas City Royals
5 - 3
|
Jul 10, 2026
Away
Baltimore Orioles defeated Kansas City Royals
8 - 6
|
Apr 22, 2026
Home
Kansas City Royals defeated Baltimore Orioles
6 - 5
|
Apr 21, 2026
Away
Baltimore Orioles defeated Kansas City Royals
7 - 5
|
Apr 20, 2026