MLB
Tuesday, July 07 at 02:15 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
55-33 (26-15 Away)
Projected Final Score
4.6
—
2.5
Projected Total: 7.1 (O/U: 7.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIL: -260
|
STL: +210
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Home
47-40 (23-21 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers Win Prob
70.3%
No Value Edge
St. Louis Cardinals Win Prob
29.7%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Milwaukee Brewers to win outright in 70.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL -1.5 / STL +1.5
MIL covers
(-115)
+2.5% Edge
56.0%
STL covers
(-105)
44.0%
Total
O/U: 7.0
OVER
(-115)
45.5%
UNDER
(-105)
+3.3% Edge
54.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đïž Ballpark Factor: Played at STL's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • đ„ Momentum Streak: MIL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 64%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Milwaukee Brewers winning outright in 70.3% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 4.6 - STL 2.5. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with MIL -1.5 covering in 56.0% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 7.0 which hit in 54.5% of runs.
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
Jacob Misiorowski
Away Starter
ERA
1.47
WHIP
0.78
Record
9-4
IP
104.0
SO
156
GS
17
STL
TBD
Home Starter
No active stats cached for starter.
Top Offensive Performers
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