MLB
Saturday, July 11 at 12:05 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
59-34
(30-16 Away)
Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
4.2
—
5.0
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Home
47-47
(24-24 Home)
Form
W
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
MIL -1.5 (+130)PIT +1.5 (-150)
- Total
-
Posted 9.0 (-100)Simulated 9.2
- Moneyline
-
MIL -130PIT +110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers
39.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates
60.2%
No edge at -130
+12.6% edge at +110
Our 10,000 iterations project the Pittsburgh Pirates to win outright in 60.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL -1.5 / PIT +1.5
MIL covers
(+130)
29.6%
PIT covers
(-150)
+10.4% Edge
70.4%
Total
O/U: 9.0
OVER
(-100)
48.7%
UNDER
(-100)
+1.3% Edge
51.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: PIT starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.067).
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at PIT's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: MIL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 73%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Pittsburgh Pirates winning outright in 60.2% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 4.2 - PIT 5.1. The strongest model variance is on the spread: take PIT +1.5 (covers in 70.4% of simulations).
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
Brandon Sproat
Away Starter
ERA
5.57
WHIP
1.44
Record
3-7
IP
97.0
SO
101
GS
19
PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
Home Starter
ERA
3.65
WHIP
1.09
Record
14-6
IP
165.1
SO
173
GS
28
Top Offensive Performers
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Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Milwaukee Brewers
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
8 - 4
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
@ St. Louis Cardinals
1 - 5
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
10 - 2
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ St. Louis Cardinals
4 - 3
|
Jul 06, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
L
vs Atlanta Braves
5 - 10
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Braves
0 - 3
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Braves
12 - 4
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
11 - 5
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
7 - 1
|
Jul 04, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Milwaukee Brewers defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
5 - 0
|
Apr 26, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 3
|
Apr 25, 2026
Away
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Milwaukee Brewers
6 - 0
|
Apr 24, 2026